Jairo Beras

Badler has his latest musings on the Beras situation. He still seems to be talking out of his ass by spinning the whole affair as nothing more than crass "misrepresentation", what with a team/agent trying to game the system by sneaking a guy in under the wire. In reality, Bradler has nothing new to report except a few more level-headed quotes that would have better served his previous reports on the matter. Misrepresentation could in fact be the most critical issue here, one that ultimately undergirds any ruling. However, Badler has given us no smoking gun here over the last 2 months to be sure so we don't know any more than we did when the news first leaked out. See you in Arizona kid!

########

¡Feliz Cumpleaños! ¡Feliz Cumpleaños!

Nomar Mazara turned 17 today, a full 6 months younger than Ronald Guzman.

########

Minor Notes

Jairo Beras investigation completed, decision could be imminent per Jesse Sanchez. Sanchez seems to have some of his facts wrong (via twitter: "...Prospects must register with MLB to be eligible to sign. Beras situation unique. He agreed w/TEX before initiative in action..." - when the "initiative" (registration?) was in effect since last year so who knows what he means here. A generous reader might infer "registration does not equal verification.") so I'll link a couple of Badler pieces summing up the situation:

Feb29

Mar4

Miggie de los Santos injured yet again as is Ryan Rodebaugh with Chad Bell getting the bump to AA. I thought Bell would begin the year in the AA roto given his nice HighA #s last year. Well, he's there now (hopefully in the roto).



########

BA: Minor League Run Environments

Matt Eddy had this piece up last Fall characterizing the offensive production of each full season league.
What is the league breakdown for Texas affiliates? The runs per 9 innings break down like this:

Arizona, 5.9
PCL, 5.68
(CAL, 5.66)
Texas, 5.0
SAL, 4.87
Northwest, 4.84
Carolina, 4.35



##########

MLB j2 Preview

MLB's Jesse Sanchez has the first substantial j2 preview today.  The non-Dominican contingent is light, so you'll have to wait for Badler's list in a couple of months for a broader grouping:

Introduction
Top 20 List




#########

Hersin Martinez signs with Seattle

Per DPL, Hersin Martinez signs with Seattle for 1.1m. Badler's #11 ranked j2 bonus baby (by projected bonus), Seattle was rumored to have signed him last July for a 7-figure deal. Here is what I wrote about that rumored deal last July:

Helsin Martinez, RF, DO: Appears to be negotiating with Seattle, a possible 7 cifra deal. Martinez is an intriguing RF but has very bad hitting mechanics to go with plus power and bat speed; seems like boom/bust type. Given that Seattle seems to be on him for more than 1.5m, I don't think hes' in the budget, and Mazarro might already be that high risk guy for Texas.



######

Buckel

Slight RHP Cody Buckel had a nice season in 2010 but not nice enough to dissuade many that he would most likely be some kind of #4.  He seemed small in stature with fringy velo, though first year velo is often depressed due to the vastly increased physical demands of any pitcher's first professional year.  This year we're getting a glimpse of the Buckel who Texas scouts likely viewed as a decent bet to become a mid-roto type of arm.  His velo is better in the second half of his starts, he's stronger, and his secondary pitches have improved.  Here is Buckle after his most recent start (6/2/0/9):

"I was just using good pitch sequences, seeing the reaction time of the hitter, seeing what they're doing in the box," said Buckel. "It was just one of those nights where I was throwing all my pitches for strikes. The changeup was huge. I had the cutter going, the slider going and a curveball going all on top of good fastball command." The 6-foot-1 right-hander credited his workouts with Bauer for his improved ability to throw harder this season later into games."We just worked on my arm strength, mechanical stuff, getting more athletic movements in my motion," he said. "My velocity has spiked up from last year and my arm doesn't feel fatigued around the sixth inning. I'm still up at 92, not dropping down to 89."




MISC:
Neil Ramirez is on a pitch count to begin the year, presumably to baby his shoulder, which cut short his 2011 AFL stint, and which was also likely the reason he was not stretched out to begin the year, coupled with some mechanical issues that he appeared to be dealing with during his mediocre camp.  His first 2 outings:  66 pitches; 77 pitches.  It likely increases to 85 and 95 during his next 2 starts before his restrictions are loosed.  His velo is still down - as it was during the spring - compared to where he sat during the first half of 2011.  I'm still think there is a better than average likelihood that NeRa ends up in the bullpen due to his durability issues:  he was very inefficient in 2011 and was more than likely to exit in the 4th last year  with 100 pitches than make it into the 6th.






########

Starting staff of 10

The Hickory Crawdads rotation has 11 pitchers with starting experience.  In their first 4 games, they have paired one starter and one long reliever in an attempt to get everyone innings:

Jackson/Rojas
Payano/Martinez
Eickhoff/McBride
Santo/Hanna
TBD: Lamb/Faulkner

The three relievers proper are Greg Williams, Phil Klein, and Jose Mavare, but even Mavare has some starting experience on his resume.  Despite the depth, only three of those guys have high ceilings - Jackson, Payano, Eickhoff -  while the rest are back roto or bullpen arms over the long term.  Eickhoff is a bit of a wild card while some like Lamb but the likelihood that he emerges as a mid roto starter seems as slim for him as it was for Tim Murphy or Evan Reed.

2012 Minor League Rosters Released

########################


Round Rock Express
Sort of: Eppley's spot might be in jeopardy as Texas needs to open up a spot on the 40 to make room for Robbie Ross and one position player might start out on the DL or be released.

Frisco Roughriders

Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Hickory Crawdads


The M&M 2012 System rosters have been updated including projections for the short season clubs.



#############

Kevin Sosa

Ben Badler's piece on AL West 2011 j2 spending confirms that VZ RHP Kevin Sosa has inked with the Rangers and that DR SS Crisford Adames recieved a nice bonus at 200k. The j2 worksheet has been updated to account for most of Texas' 2011 j2 spending.

As I noted in my 2011 j2 coverage, Sosa was tied to Texas. He is a smallish righty (~6.0) who was described in some message boards by those who saw him at VZ showcases as raw with inconsistent command/mechanics at 86-87 and by BA with better regard as having "fixable" mechanics with a loose quick arm, high 3/4, good plane, 85-89, and a feel for both secs. I have speculated that his bonus is in the 100-200k range.

I don't believe he is in ST so he is raw enough that he will spend 2012 with the DSL squad.

Also check out Badler's piece on Mazara and the continued skepticism of rival international scouts/officials who think his payday was crazy, asserting that any assumptions about his hit tool were extremely speculative based on Mazara's limited game action. To date, his hit tool seems pretty unrefined with fundamental mechanical issues that must be addressed but I'm willing to withhold judgement until he finishes up his 2012 AZL stint (and thru instructs too). Also see my report on the signing, which echoes many of Badler's key points. Daly comes out looking like a bit of a naif in Badler's article but I suspect (hope) that hese quotes reflect Badler's own tendentiousness.

For my money, I'd rather have Sanchez and Hernandez for that money. Both are much better bets and would have only run you 5.6m. Sanchez is touching mid-90's this spring and Hernandez has elite tools beside his elite power projection, in addition to postion flexibility. But, hey, I don't have 5 million so there's that.


Other M&M 2011 j2 posts:
July 1
July 8
July 14
Sept. 11





##########